[ti:Economists Worry About the Effects of a ‘No-deal’ Brexit]
[by:www.21voa.com]
[00:00.00]更多听力请访问21VOA.COM
[00:00.04]Concerns are growing that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union
[00:06.60]will cause economic problems for both sides.
[00:11.96]Making matters worse is the possibility that some European countries
[00:18.76]may see their economies decrease in the coming months.
[00:24.80]This week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend Parliament for weeks.
[00:33.84]The goal of the action is to prevent lawmakers from passing legislation
[00:40.71]to block the country from leaving the EU without negotiating an agreement.
[00:49.16]The time limit for "Brexit," as it is called, is October 31.
[00:56.64]Negotiators have failed to reach an agreement in the three years
[01:02.31]since a majority of the British people voted to leave the EU in 2016.
[01:11.20]Many experts now believe a so called "no-deal Brexit" is likely to happen.
[01:20.76]Economists and business experts say the result of a no-deal Brexit
[01:27.54]would cause widespread problems and disorder.
[01:32.92]Problems could include new taxes on trade,
[01:37.43]slower movement of people and goods at borders,
[01:42.56]and problems with licenses to do business in other countries.
[01:50.60]Britain's withdrawal comes at an uncertain time for the EU.
[01:57.40]The trade dispute between the United States and China has already raised concerns for Europe.
[02:06.28]And Germany, which depends on exports and manufacturing,
[02:11.75]is facing the possibility of a recession.
[02:16.80]Germany could "be hit quite badly if a no-deal Brexit occurs in two months' time."
[02:26.32]That is what Andrew Kenningham said.
[02:29.68]He is an economist with Capital Economics, a research group in London.
[02:38.52]Germany is Europe's largest economy.
[02:42.21]From April to June, its economy shrank.
[02:47.52]Many economists believe the same will happen from July to September.
[02:54.40]That means the country would be in a recession as a no-deal Brexit takes place.
[03:03.60]Some economists also predict that Britain could fall into a recession as well.
[03:11.80]They estimate the British economy would shrink by about three percent.
[03:19.84]Italy's economy did not grow at all from April to June and could also face a recession.
[03:30.16]Supporters of Brexit, however, say companies have had more than three years to prepare.
[03:37.92]Finally leaving, they say, would remove uncertainty.
[03:45.52]Nigel Driffield is a professor of international business at Warwick Business School in Britain.
[03:54.64]He said it could take months or even years for terms of trade
[04:00.89]to be fully agreed on between Britain and the EU.
[04:07.36]He said some companies could prepare by planning for the future.
[04:14.16]"However, suppose another (supplier),
[04:17.57]perhaps in another country, fails to prepare,
[04:21.65]your part of the value chain still grinds to a halt,
[04:26.98]and your customer still stops ordering.
[04:30.92]What do you do?" Driffield asked.
[04:35.07]Driffield expects a no-deal Brexit to lead to five to 10 years of negotiations over trade.
[04:47.00]That is about as long as negotiations with Canada took to complete.
[04:54.32]The EU is Britain's largest trading partner, representing half of its international trade.
[05:03.80]Trade with Britain is 20 percent of the EU's trade total.
[05:10.80]By comparison, 18 percent of Britain's exports go to the U.S.
[05:18.80]Experts say the European countries that would suffer the most from a no-deal Brexit
[05:26.02]would be smaller ones that ship goods heavily to Britain,
[05:31.48]like the Netherlands, Belgium and Ireland.
[05:37.44]Larger economies, like those of Germany and France, would suffer less.
[05:45.96]The effects outside of Europe are not expected to be very large.
[05:52.52]However, financial markets could be influenced, weakening the world economy.
[06:01.64]Possibly as a result of the lack of clarity,
[06:05.69]the European Central Bank is expected to announce new measures
[06:11.60]to ease the availability of money as soon as September 12.
[06:19.64]Some experts warn that such measures will help over the short term,
[06:26.32]but they say politicians must act to reach trade agreements and end disputes.
[06:37.60]I'm Mario Ritter Jr. 更多听力请访问21VOA.COM
END OF TRACK. "END OF TRACK." The two men bowed. "Whoever was that person you were talking to?" she enquired, as soon as they stood together. The took of triumph faded from her eyes, she had grown worn and weary. The roses were wilting on the walls, the lights were mostly down now. Hetty, looking in to see if anything was wanted, found herself driven away almost fiercely. I only saw Master Jervie once when he called at tea time, The year 1747 was opened by measures of restriction. The House of Lords, offended at the publication of the proceedings of the trial of Lord Lovat, summoned the parties to their bar, committed them to prison, and refused to liberate them till they had pledged themselves not to repeat the offence, and had paid very heavy fees. The consequence of this was that the transactions of the Peers were almost entirely suppressed for nearly thirty years from this time, and we draw our knowledge of them chiefly from notes taken by Horace Walpole and Lord Chancellor Hardwicke. What is still more remarkable, the reports of the House of Commons, being taken by stealth, and on the merest sufferance, are of the most meagre kind, sometimes altogether wanting, and the speeches are given uniformly under fictitious names; for to have attributed to Pitt or Pelham their[112] speeches by name would have brought down on the printers the summary vengeance of the House. Many of the members complained bitterly of this breach of the privileges of Parliament, and of "being put into print by low fellows"; but Pelham had the sense to tolerate them, saying, "Let them alone; they make better speeches for us than we can make for ourselves." Altogether, the House of Commons exhibited the most deplorable aspect that can be conceived. The Ministry had pursued Walpole's system of buying up opponents by place, or pension, or secret service money, till there was no life left in the House. Ministers passed their measures without troubling themselves to say much in their behalf; and the opposition dwindled to Sir John Hinde Cotton, now dismissed from office, and a feeble remnant of Jacobites raised but miserable resistance. In vain the Prince of Wales and the secret instigations of Bolingbroke and Doddington stimulated the spirit of discontent; both Houses had degenerated into most silent and insignificant arenas of very commonplace business. "It certainly will be. Miss Widgeon," answered Maria, with strictly "company manners." "One who has never had a brother exposed to the constant dangers of army life can hardly understand how glad we all feel to have Si snatched from the very jaws of death and brung back to us." "Just plug at 'em as you would at a crow, and then go on your way whistlin'?" persisted Harry. "Hurroo!" echoed Hennessey; "that's the ticket." "Come forward, keeper," continued the baron, "and state how these arrows came into your hands!" "Yes." HoMEJULIA京香2018下载
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