[by:www.21voa.com]
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[00:00.64]China's decision to end its one-child policy
[00:04.56]is likely to affect the country's economy.
[00:08.68]Official Chinese media reported last month
[00:12.64]that all couples will be permitted to have two children.
[00:17.24]The change in policy is expected to create new investments
[00:22.44]and increased demand for goods and services.
[00:27.28]The move comes as China's economy is slowing.
[00:31.52]However, the change also may increase demand
[00:35.76]for higher pay and increase labor costs.
[00:40.24]Speaking at a press conference Tuesday,
[00:44.24]Chinese officials predicted that the new policy
[00:48.28]would raise economic growth by about half of one percent.
[00:53.68]They said it would provide China with about 30 million laborers by 2050.
[01:01.80]He Weiwen is with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies
[01:08.52]at Renmin University in Beijing.
[01:12.12]He says that more children will mean
[01:15.68]"more maternity homes, hospitals, kindergartens and schools.
[01:21.88]It will certainly result in massive investment in these areas."
[01:27.84]"The two-child policy will also lead to more spending on the second child,
[01:34.96]and thus contribute to economic growth." He added,
[01:40.44]"The families having the second child
[01:43.16]will reduce their savings to meet the new requirement."
[01:47.64]The policy limiting families to one child began more than 30 years ago.
[01:54.92]When the new policy goes into effect,
[01:57.76]91-million couples will have official permission for a second child.
[02:04.36]The government expects that at least 60 percent of parents
[02:09.08]having two children will come from rural areas.
[02:14.68]Limited health care and educational centers in rural areas and small cities
[02:21.24]have long been a problem in China.
[02:24.72]The government will have to make new investments in these areas
[02:29.52]to provide quality centers for families with two children.
[02:35.76]The Conference Board, a U.S.-based research group,
[02:40.00]says there are both good and bad effects
[02:43.16]that might result from the two-child policy.
[02:47.04]The group says, "An increase in the number of children
[02:51.16]could have a positive impact on the consumption of products
[02:56.08]and services catering towards child rearing."
[03:00.76]It adds, "this could lead to growth
[03:03.48]and employment demand in those industries."
[03:08.20]But the Conference Board also warned of the effects of rising labor costs,
[03:13.96]and greater pressure on aging grandparents.
[03:18.12]These men and women are often forced
[03:21.04]to take care of the young children of working mothers and fathers.
[03:26.96]The main purpose of permitting two children in each family
[03:31.64]is to deal with the aging of China's population and shrinking workforce.
[03:38.28]I'm Mario Ritter.
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