[ti:Should Europe's Economies Re-open for Christmas?]
[by:www.21voa.com]
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[00:00.04]The Christmas season has always been important for the economy.
[00:05.84]Stores, hotels and travel businesses
[00:09.92]usually make their money at Christmas time.
[00:14.16]But it is unclear if the holiday season helps other industries.
[00:20.88]The health crisis has forced countries across Europe
[00:24.84]to shut down until early December to contain the spread of coronavirus.
[00:32.28]Governments are hoping to re-open their economies in time for Christmas.
[00:38.28]Some economists, however, wonder if it will do any good.
[00:44.52]The question is especially important this year.
[00:47.88]There is a risk that re-opening too early
[00:51.64]could hurt public health, economic growth and employment.
[00:58.00]The financial research firm Deloitte
[01:00.76]says the biggest European spenders on Christmas last year
[01:05.44]are those in Britain, Spain, Italy, Germany and Portugal.
[01:12.80]In Britain, December sales are usually around 12 percent of the yearly total.
[01:20.56]Economists say that helps retail businesses,
[01:24.48]even if people buy less in January to recover from December spending.
[01:31.92]However, lower-priced Black Friday sales across Europe in late November
[01:38.00]has made December spending less important.
[01:42.40]The growth in online purchasing also makes it less necessary
[01:47.40]for some stores to stay open.
[01:51.36]German retail association HDE expects online sales
[01:57.20]to fuel an increase of 1.2 percent over 2019.
[02:04.04]Some economists believe that even
[02:06.88]if people do not buy before Christmas, they will spend on other things.
[02:13.40]Paul Donovan is chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
[02:19.72]He said in his weekly blog,
[02:21.88]"Not spending on drinks at a Christmas party
[02:25.16]translates into the purchase of new furniture."
[02:30.12]Television news often shows crowded stores
[02:33.92]with last-minute purchasers before Christmas.
[02:37.48]But there are other, less obvious effects of the Christmas season.
[02:44.16]Usually, productivity drops as Christmas nears.
[02:49.44]Workers rush out to buy things or go to parties.
[02:55.08]One research company found
[02:57.20]that 25 percent of workers reported they do less work
[03:02.16]or try to avoid more work during the holiday season.
[03:07.40]There are even some economists
[03:09.68]who believe the act of buying gifts is bad for the economy.
[03:16.20]Yale economist Joel Waldfogel wrote a paper in 1993
[03:21.80]called "The Deadweight Loss of Christmas."
[03:26.40]He said that when people pay a lot for gifts, especially unwanted gifts,
[03:32.24]that was like destroying their economic value.
[03:37.64]Economists continue to argue about this idea.
[03:42.84]However, few disagree that Christmas does have
[03:47.00]unintended and harmful effects on the economy,
[03:51.36]from drunk-driving accidents to increased paper waste.
[03:57.16]Information on new coronavirus cases in coming days
[04:01.40]will show if Europe can reopen for Christmas.
[04:05.96]But for the economy, it may not make any difference.
[04:10.80]I'm Jonathan Evans. 更多听力请访问21VOA.COM