[ti:Study: One-Third of Humans Could Face Almost ‘Unlivable’ Heat by 2070]
[by:www.21voa.com]
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[00:00.04]A new study predicts that in just 50 years, as many as 3.5 billion people could be facing "near-unlivable" heat.
[00:14.64]The extreme heat would be a result of rising world temperatures
[00:20.48]linked to human-made climate change, the study suggests.
[00:27.76]Researchers from the United States, China and Europe were involved in the study.
[00:36.16]The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reported the results.
[00:43.92]Marten Scheffer is an ecologist at Wageningen University in the Netherlands.
[00:51.68]He helped lead the research.
[00:55.60]He said the research shows that historically, human populations have mostly lived in areas
[01:03.96]where the average yearly temperature was between 11 to 15 degrees Celsius.
[01:12.96]A smaller number lived where the average temperature was higher, between 20 to 25 degrees.
[01:22.72]Scheffer said that since these population centers have existed for several thousand years,
[01:30.36]it suggests the areas represent a climate "niche" necessary for human survival.
[01:39.44]But if world temperatures keep rising, this could put large parts of the population i
[01:46.36]n areas too warm to live in without cooling technology, Scheffer and his team reported.
[01:55.80]The exact number of people who could be put at risk depends on whether pollutant levels
[02:02.56]of heat-trapping carbon dioxide can be reduced and how fast the world population will grow.
[02:12.64]Under the worst-case predictions for population growth and carbon pollution,
[02:19.16]the study estimates about 3.5 billion people could be living in extremely hot areas by 2070.
[02:30.96]That would be one-third of the world's projected population.
[02:37.32]Even predictions considered by some scientists to be more likely estimate at least two billion people
[02:46.20]will be living in places too hot to survive without air conditioning in 2070, the study found.
[02:56.28]"It's a huge amount and it's a short time. This is why we're worried,"
[03:02.72]Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald told The Associated Press.
[03:11.24]She was not part of the study.
[03:14.24]But she and other outside scientists said the research makes sense
[03:20.40]and presents the urgency of man-made climate change differently than past studies.
[03:29.40]The new study used an unusual method to identify the climate niches the research is based on.
[03:39.20]A team of international scientists studied humans like they do bears, birds and bees
[03:47.44]to find the areas where human populations live and thrive.
[03:54.44]The researchers looked back 6,000 years to create the niche areas.
[04:02.44]Currently, about 20 million people live in places with an average yearly temperature greater than 29 degrees Celsius.
[04:14.36]The areas make up less than 1 percent of Earth's land, and mostly near the Sahara Desert.
[04:22.72]But as the world gets warmer and more crowded, the study predicts that large areas of Africa,
[04:31.04]Asia, South America and Australia will also likely be in the same temperature range.
[04:40.72]Study co-writer Chi Xu of China's Nanjing University
[04:46.92]predicts that well over 1 billion people will be affected, possibly billions more.
[04:55.20]But he and other researchers noted there is still time for humans
[05:01.28]to make climate changing action to slow Earth's warming.
[05:07.20]Marten Scheffer said in a statement the study's predictions
[05:12.24]would mean "unlivable" conditions "for the ordinary, for poor people, for the average world citizen."
[05:20.88]He said such conditions could lead to major climate migrations from the hottest areas of the world.
[05:31.28]Tim Lenton is a climate scientist and director of the Global Systems Institute at Britain's University of Exeter.
[05:42.36]He helped lead the research.
[05:46.00]Lenton said countries like Nigeria - with a population expected to grow 300 percent by the end of the century
[05:55.68]- would likely face major difficulties if the predicted warmer conditions develop.
[06:03.32]I'm Bryan Lynn.
[06:05.80]更多听力请访问21VOA.COM
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