[ti:Western Sanctions Hurting Russia's Economy]
[by:www.21voa.com]
[00:00.00]更多听力请访问21VOA.COM
[00:00.04]Western Sanctions are dealing a severe blow to Russia’s economy.
[00:07.68]Russia’s money, the Rouble, is dropping to record lows.
[00:13.08]Foreign businesses are fleeing, and prices in Russia are rising.
[00:20.40]Russia’s economy was suffering long before the invasion of Ukraine.
[00:27.40]That suffering is now increasing.
[00:31.20]But a total collapse is unlikely, several economists say.
[00:38.64]Richard Connolly is an expert on the Russian economy
[00:43.64]at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.
[00:49.48]He said Russia has built, “an economy that’s geared for conflict.”
[00:56.76]The Russian government’s involvement in the economy,
[01:01.32]and the money it continues to make from oil and gas exports,
[01:06.80]will help ease the economic effects for many workers.
[01:12.80]Russia has experienced three serious financial crises in the last 30 years.
[01:21.60]Still, the value of Russian money has fallen greatly.
[01:27.48]That will drive up prices for imported goods.
[01:32.76]Inflation was already at 9 percent before the conflict.
[01:39.40]Sanctions have frozen a large amount of Russia’s foreign money.
[01:45.76]State finances, however, are doing well with low debt.
[01:51.92]When the government does need to borrow,
[01:55.08]it can borrow money from local banks.
[01:59.04]Additionally, the government announced support this week
[02:03.76]for large companies it believes are important to the economy.
[02:10.44]The short-term effects of Russia’s economic growth
[02:14.28]have differing estimates.
[02:17.88]That is because more sanctions could come,
[02:21.24]and the fallout from President Vladimir Putin’s war are unclear.
[02:27.88]Tim Ash is a senior market researcher
[02:31.96]at BlueBay Asset Management.
[02:35.80]He said, “Russians will be a lot poorer
[02:39.72]— they won’t have cash to holiday in Turkey
[02:43.12]or send their kids to school in the West
[02:46.72]— and even then, because of Putin, they will not be welcome.”
[02:52.56]He sees economic growth dropping 10 percent.
[02:57.36]Other economists see a drop of
[03:00.68]as little as 2 percent or something in between.
[03:06.56]The long-term outlook for Russia’s economy is not good,
[03:10.88]for reasons that were clear before the war.
[03:15.60]A few favored insiders control major companies and industries.
[03:22.28]Russia mainly depends on the oil and gas industry.
[03:27.88]The average amount a Russian person produces in 2020
[03:33.32]was around what it was in 2014.
[03:38.24]Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
[03:41.68]foreign investments built up over the last 30 years,
[03:46.48]and jobs it brought, are leaving Russia.
[03:51.84]Large companies like Apple and Ikea
[03:55.76]have stopped sales or production in Russia.
[04:00.40]Large energy companies like BP, Exxon and Shell
[04:05.60]have said they will stop buying Russian oil and gas
[04:10.32]or leave their partnerships.
[04:13.84]Russia’s central bank has stepped in.
[04:17.44]It has attempted to strengthen the ruble and the banking system,
[04:23.64]restrict taking out foreign money from banks,
[04:27.44]and has kept the stock market closed for nearly two weeks.
[04:33.84]The Russian government has announced measures
[04:36.88]to restrict foreign investors from fleeing.
[04:41.64]Such restrictions avoid a complete financial collapse,
[04:46.36]but they also close off the economy
[04:49.16]to trade and investment that could fuel growth.
[04:54.40]Since facing sanctions over its 2014 seizure of Ukraine’s Crimea,
[05:01.48]Russia has prepared for sanctions brought on by the West.
[05:07.28]Connolly has written a book on Russia’s reaction to sanctions.
[05:13.44]He said Russia’s economy is “a durable,
[05:17.68]in some ways primitive system.”
[05:21.72]He said it is based on low debt and the government controls
[05:26.64]most of the banking system.
[05:30.20]The central bank is able to intervene and support the ruble and banks.
[05:37.32]“I’m not saying they’re going to have a wonderful time.
[05:41.16]I’m saying they have the resources to deal with these problems,” he said.
[05:48.20]Trade will fall and fewer goods will be available.
[05:52.40]But the weaker ruble means the Russian government
[05:56.08]earns more money for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars.
[06:03.56]With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia
[06:08.84]is getting 2.7 times the number of rubles from oil compared with 2019.
[06:17.48]That money can pay workers and those who are retired.
[06:22.44]U.S. and British officials said they will ban oil imports from Russia.
[06:29.88]Europe, which depends more on Russia for energy, has held back.
[06:36.28]I’m Gregory Stachel. 更多听力请访问21VOA.COM
END OF TRACK. "END OF TRACK." The two men bowed. "Whoever was that person you were talking to?" she enquired, as soon as they stood together. The took of triumph faded from her eyes, she had grown worn and weary. The roses were wilting on the walls, the lights were mostly down now. Hetty, looking in to see if anything was wanted, found herself driven away almost fiercely. I only saw Master Jervie once when he called at tea time, The year 1747 was opened by measures of restriction. The House of Lords, offended at the publication of the proceedings of the trial of Lord Lovat, summoned the parties to their bar, committed them to prison, and refused to liberate them till they had pledged themselves not to repeat the offence, and had paid very heavy fees. The consequence of this was that the transactions of the Peers were almost entirely suppressed for nearly thirty years from this time, and we draw our knowledge of them chiefly from notes taken by Horace Walpole and Lord Chancellor Hardwicke. What is still more remarkable, the reports of the House of Commons, being taken by stealth, and on the merest sufferance, are of the most meagre kind, sometimes altogether wanting, and the speeches are given uniformly under fictitious names; for to have attributed to Pitt or Pelham their[112] speeches by name would have brought down on the printers the summary vengeance of the House. Many of the members complained bitterly of this breach of the privileges of Parliament, and of "being put into print by low fellows"; but Pelham had the sense to tolerate them, saying, "Let them alone; they make better speeches for us than we can make for ourselves." Altogether, the House of Commons exhibited the most deplorable aspect that can be conceived. The Ministry had pursued Walpole's system of buying up opponents by place, or pension, or secret service money, till there was no life left in the House. Ministers passed their measures without troubling themselves to say much in their behalf; and the opposition dwindled to Sir John Hinde Cotton, now dismissed from office, and a feeble remnant of Jacobites raised but miserable resistance. In vain the Prince of Wales and the secret instigations of Bolingbroke and Doddington stimulated the spirit of discontent; both Houses had degenerated into most silent and insignificant arenas of very commonplace business. "It certainly will be. Miss Widgeon," answered Maria, with strictly "company manners." "One who has never had a brother exposed to the constant dangers of army life can hardly understand how glad we all feel to have Si snatched from the very jaws of death and brung back to us." "Just plug at 'em as you would at a crow, and then go on your way whistlin'?" persisted Harry. "Hurroo!" echoed Hennessey; "that's the ticket." "Come forward, keeper," continued the baron, "and state how these arrows came into your hands!" "Yes." HoMEJULIA京香2018下载
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